What transpired in Egypt recently tells a tall story of the future of the country. However, many wrongly thought that the deposed president Mohammed Morsi with his Islamic outfit was Egypt’s major problem. True, Egypt’s problem is bigger than Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood.
If we face it, chances are that soon Egypt will experience more unrests and chaos than it has ever evidenced throughout its history. Those who bother to muse on what causes people to be disgruntled and pull down a democratically elected government will agree with us that the problem is more economic than political. Egypt’s such humongous population that it cannot handle. If anything, this is the real and major problem. Thus, to save the country from itself, population control must be the first priority. Egypt has the population of 82.5 million that is cobbled on an arable land along River Nile and its delta. These areas are among the world highly densely populated with the average of 3,820 persons per square kilometers. Out of 1,000,000 square kilometers Egypt occupies only 2.87% is arable land.
Egypt’s a high educated and vibrant young population. Nobody can harmonize Egypt without addressing the whole issue of the population and unemployment which was 12.5 according to CIA Fact book, as of 2012. And the number surges even higher as days go by. This is the keg awaiting the army to foil. Will it foil it? The army, after being bundled out of power, waited for any opportunity to lord it over whoever that stands on its way. Indeed, Morsi was standing on its way, especially when he fired its former chief and king maker Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, who presided over the government after his mentor, former strong man, Hosni Mubarak was bundled out.
Military takeover after revolution did not sink well with either opposition or the citizenry. Due to high demand to kick the army out of power, Egyptians voted Muslim Brotherhood en masse without knowing that it was another anathema. The situation at this moment was like making a choice between a rock and a hard place. Facing two evils, Egyptians opted for Muslim Brotherhood which later proved to be a liability as the army was.
Now that the army is in a bigger picture once again, what’d we expect? Should we expect anti-Morsi opposition to ascend to power and be kicked out due to the fact that it doesn’t have the edge to return Egypt to calmness? Will anti-Morsi-fragmented opposition stand without the support of the army? If the army stands with anti-Morsi to form a government, will it be able to rule amidst chaos perpetrated by pro-Morsi forces, that have proved to be hell-bent to see to it that Egypt is becoming ungovernable? With all these difference plus economic tanking, will Egypt remain the same or forge ahead really?
Although the international community has refrained from becoming players in Egypt’s fate, chances are that we must brace ourselves for evidencing another Iraq, even Syria in Egypt soon. As it seems, there’s no way any of the major players, namely the citizenry, weak opposition, Muslim Brotherhood and Army, can let go or be compromised. The army, on its side, will try to flex its muscles as a short time solution. But as the look of things is, tells a different story. There’s no way a hungry population will give in. How can they give in while what they need is food on the table? To calm Egypt down is enable everybody to bring food on the table. Where will food come from amid chaos and unrests?
UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, through his spokesperson, Farhan Haq, was quoted by BBC as saying, “The Secretary-General believes strongly that this is a critical juncture in which it is imperative for Egyptians to work together to chart a peaceful return to civilian control, constitutional order, and democratic governance.” Again, looking at lip services the international community has offered, Moon’s advice does not hold water. How will Egyptians work together while they don’t pull together? Is working together the solution if at all a democratic government can be easily toppled?
One thing many ignore is the fact that Egyptians are desperate after being ruled by corrupt and inept dictators for long. Such hungry population has lost commonsense. What it needs is food, regardless whether it is brought by devil or angel. And nobody can sufficiently supply food to such huge population facing economic and political upheavals.
Although the Muslim Brotherhood was accused of secretly trying to install a theocracy, it’s a sound mechanism with which to rule. When it comes to fragmented and weak opposition that desperately went to bed with the army to overthrow Morsi, it offers neither hope nor alternative. This being the real situation, the truth is: Egypt’s a long way to go. What we’re witnessing is but the beginning of a long, rough and complicated road ahead. Again, who’ll save Egypt from itself? Will the international community chip in or just stay aside and look as it is currently? Who wants to be blamed for somebody else’s mess in the first place?
When Morsi was toppled, many thought that the ‘fathers’ of democracy would stand with him and demand that he be reinstated. But nay, nobody dared to step in knowing how deeper, protracted and complicated Egypt’s situation is.
In a nutshell, however, the army in conjunction with revenging judiciary and confused opposition overthrew Morsi… this is not the end of the story. Soon the trio will find themselves in tug of war so as to start scheming against each other. Surely, after deposing Morsi, the army will follow next any soon from now.
Nkwazi Mhango is a Tanzanian living in Canada. He writes regularly for “The African Executive” and also has a blog entitled “Free Thinking Unabii”. He is a regular contributor to AfroSpear.